As I write this column on Sunday evening while watching Switzerland (non-EU) v France (EU) in the European Championships, I am wondering what this week will bring and how exactly the EU referendum is going to pan out. As I see it, from this week onwards there will be four parts to the referendum and the outcomes resulting from it.
The first part will be the media frenzy approaching polling day. There will be claim and counter-claim from both sides and while I support the Leave campaign, I do not agree with everything they have said. However, the ‘Project Fear’ tactics from the Remain campaign have been deplorable. This will reach fever pitch this week and goodness knows what they will trott out in the final days before the vote.The second part is the vote itself. I think it more likely than not that Crawley will return a Leave vote, but if it doesn’t, then I can’t see Leave winning nationally if Crawley votes for Remain. I can however see either Leave or Remain winning nationally if Crawley votes for Leave. Nationally, it feels very close so I hope the turnout is high to give this election the biggest possible mandate.
The third part will be the immediate aftermath after the result. I think it very likely that whatever the result, there will be no status quo. We will be in a whole new political world and what this will look like will be anyone’s guess. As I wrote last week, when voting we should take a long-term view and not decide our vote based on the possible immediate aftermath of the vote.Finally there will the long-term outcomes. This is where it really matters and I am confident the UK will have a better global future outside of the EU while still working with our European and EU neighbours. However, if we vote to stay, we will be trapped in an increasingly undemocratic political organisation that bullies and threatens those who dare to disagree with it. This is our only chance to leave and we should seize it.