This week's bookies odds for the next Prime Minister |
"This week will
be exactly six months until next years’ general election which takes place on
Thursday the 7th of May. Despite being interested in this event, I have to
confess that I am no wiser than I was six months ago or indeed a year ago, as
to what the eventual outcome will be.
As things
stand, everything seems to point to another hung parliament and that makes
predicting who will be in government the most uncertain election outcome in a
generation. All sorts of permutations and possibilities that have not happened
before are being discussed. The various potential outcomes may well focus minds
on our voting system as well as the unfairness of some constituencies having
many less voters than others.
A hint of
what may happen came at the 2005 general election. Experts have calculated that in 2005 with
an equal share of the vote, the Conservatives would have won 111 fewer seats than
Labour. Labour won a comfortable majority with a national vote share of 35.2% to
the Conservative’s 32.4%. In England, the Conservatives won a small majority of
the vote over Labour (35.7% to 35.5%) but Labour won 286 English seats to the
Conservatives’ 194.
Next year, we
really could be looking at a situation where the Conservatives win the most
votes not just in England but overall, but that Labour win the most seats (or
win fewer seats than the Conservatives), but still form a minority government
propped up by the SNP. While that would be a legitimate election outcome, the
obvious unfairness of it would risk creating a huge disenfranchisement of the
voting public, if the party that came second in terms of votes (and maybe seats
as well) was the lead party in government.
Labour and
the LibDems cynically stopped the boundary review that would have helped to
equalise the constituencies, ensuring that Labour’s inbuilt unfair advantage of
the current boundaries remains. I hope that this unfairness that directly
impacts on the election outcome, is not compounded by another unfairness, that
being that the party that comes second actually ‘wins’ the election."
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