"2014 was an
eventful year and I have no doubt that 2015 will be equally so. One certain
prediction for 2015 is that there will be plenty of political uncertainty. The
general election is only four months away and amid the uncertainty, there are
some things regarding its outcome that we can be certain about.
Most people
are expecting a huge Parliament, but no credible political pundit is predicting
anything other than a Conservative or Labour Prime Minister after the general
election. Assuming they are both still in place as party leaders in May, that
means either David Cameron or Ed Miliband as Prime Minister.
What is very
uncertain in a hung Parliament is who will have the numbers to form a
government. My nightmare scenario is that the Alex Salmond SNP tail could be
wagging the Ed Miliband Labour dog. The south of England is never a priority
for the northern-based Labour Party, but if a Labour government is propped up
by the Scottish nationalist SNP, then we can be certain that their policies
will be bad for Crawley.
Other
potential coalition partners for Labour are the Northern Irish nationalist SDLP
who usually sit with Labour in the Commons, and the Welsh nationalist Plaid
Cymru. A heavy price that costs us dear here in southern England could be extracted
by nationalists outside of England, in order to make Ed Miliband Prime
Minister.
What is
certain here in Crawley, is that it will be Conservative or Labour who
wins and that the Crawley outcome will have a direct impact on whether the next
Prime Minister is Conservative or Labour. We can also
be certain that just like in 2014, UKIP will not be anywhere near winning a
single Council seat in Crawley, yet alone have any chance of the Parliamentary
seat.
Amid all the uncertainty for 2015, I can accurately predict that it is
still a two-horse race both locally and nationally. I’m sure everyone will be
pleased once the election is over and hopefully for 2015-2020, we can have
stability like the Conservative and LibDem Coalition has delivered since 2010."
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